Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.412226 12.196539 14.152307 16.449433 19.067629 21.952679 25.366117
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.725359 10.162894 13.106855 16.897222 21.617914 27.271318 34.518315
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.047175 8.800047 12.413138 17.436825 24.164258 32.775988 44.531998
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.675565 7.458317 11.393675 17.248441 25.595107 36.900080 53.163836
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.570785 6.210170 10.210968 16.542280 26.089526 39.681560 60.149902
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.798957 5.277684 9.283805 15.989645 26.622628 42.441172 67.230869
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.340517 4.747103 8.865631 16.108311 28.103593 46.633754 76.670277
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.922835 4.191117 8.296078 15.866386 28.934577 49.850507 84.838811
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.734156 4.019208 8.354308 16.672326 31.530112 56.008565 98.014073
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.515932 3.739464 8.162919 16.991848 33.301589 60.942095 109.560961
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.305801 3.429409 7.858497 17.048567 34.591057 65.143581 120.175042
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.129973 3.155309 7.577417 17.100939 35.854597 69.367413 131.086466
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.071047 3.151100 7.871720 18.359378 39.551179 78.230887 150.771625
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.975899 3.038385 7.917752 19.123237 42.390851 85.812997 168.806962
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.887380 2.922425 7.937725 19.833204 45.192502 93.537877 187.630476
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.757970 2.661967 7.576798 19.663990 46.198096 97.989101 200.814548
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.618251 2.331619 6.984816 18.887073 45.850768 99.819437 209.254043
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.509921 2.063164 6.495812 18.271942 45.764789 102.120029 218.691606
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.448358 1.927369 6.330293 18.407628 47.322492 107.778509 234.907854
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.381274 1.751136 6.019706 18.136479 47.932037 111.546093 247.649548
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.359900 1.734700 6.162356 19.042842 51.324604 121.273920 272.765667
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.324705 1.654450 6.101298 19.402009 53.458169 128.485092 293.196836
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.286105 1.547616 5.939088 19.465785 54.888146 134.287670 311.081986